中文标题：共享单车需求预测与停放点布局策略研究--以广州市增城区为例

英文标题：Research on Demand Forecasting and Docking Station Layout Strategy of Bike-sharing:A Case Study of Zengcheng District in Guangzhou

作者信息

罗俊杰  广州市图鉴城市规划勘测设计有限公司院长，高级工程师

周婷婷  广州市图鉴城市规划勘测设计有限公司规划设计所所长，高级工程师

娄玉婷  广州市图鉴城市规划勘测设计有限公司规划四组组长，助理工程师

摘  要：在共享经济的大背景下，共享单车逐渐成为现代交通体系的重要组成部分，在影响城市居民日常出行的同时，对城市管理构成新的挑战。如何根据地方发展需求精准预测共享单车需求量，合理布局停放点，是社会发展过程中必须面对的难题。文章以广州市增城区为例，基于共享单车出行数据，分析共享单车发展的时空间特征，并提出共享单车需求预测的思路、流程与停放点布局的策略方法，在此基础上，提出共享单车管理模式建议，为合理控制共享单车规模、优化共享单车布点规划提供有益参考。

关 键 词：共享单车;需求预测;空间布局;增城区

Abstract：In the background of sharing economy, bicycle-sharing has graduallybecome one of the important parts of modern transportation system, which affecting thedaily travel of urban residents while simultaneously posing a new challenge to urbanmanagement. How to forecast the demand of bicycle-sharing accurately and arrangethe docking station reasonably in the light of local demand are the difficult problemsthat must be faced in social development. Taking Zengcheng District of Guangzhou asan example, and on the basis of bicycle-sharing travel data, this paper analyzes thespatial and temporal characteristics of bicycle-sharing, and puts forward the thoughtand process of forecasting the demand of bicycle-sharing, and the layout strategy of thebicycle-sharing docking station. Finally, the management model of bicycle-sharing is putforward based on the research findings. The results can provide useful references forcontrolling the scale of bicycle-sharing and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing.

Keywords：bicycle-sharing; demand forecasting; spatial layout; Zengcheng District